Thursday, March 10, 2011

Are you prepared? Episode 1

What if there was a theory that radical environmentalists, CEO's of major oil companies, leading geologists, famous UCLA professors and government energy executives all believed in? Would it get your attention? What if leading geologists in the United States pulled together a report (The Hirsch Report) that proved scientifically using the best data available that in the coming years we are beginning the end of oil. (The Bush Administartion supressed this report. Suprise!) According to the Hubbert Peak Oil Theory oil availability and production is shaped like a bell curve. The United States reached our peak in the 1970's and have been declining in production ever since. Just ask BP why we drilling at 5000 feet in the Gulf of Mexico? Or ask Canada why they are taking off entire mountains to get at tar sand deposits? Oil is getting harder to get extract. For evidence see info listed below. The world reserves will from the best estimates start a rapid decline in the next 2-5 years and according to Jared Diamond could practically disappear in a couple decades. What does this mean?

Well it could be a conspiracy theory developed by the solar and wind turbine companies to get people to purchase their products. It could a conspiracy brought to us by the creators of ethanol who want corn to stretch from sea to shining sea. Or it could be partically true. Partically because I say if something like this is even half true we are in for a chaotic future. Sure technology and good old human ingenuity could save us? Or we could be rescued by renewables? Or nuclear power and natural gas could rescue us? But what about the transition?
OK I don't quite remember but in 1973 there was a war in the Middle East called the Yom Kippur War. Oil production went down 5% and people waited in lines for gas for hours in the US. There was mass hysteria and fear. Still skeptical? Let me continue.

Like I said before don't take my word for it check out the evidence and make up your own mind.

Next point. We also have emerging economies like China and India with populations over a billion each who want a piece of the middle class dream. China's need for oil has been increasing exponentially. In 2009 China counted for 1/3 of the global increase in oil consumption. The US is not off the hook. We use 25% of the oil on the planet with 5% of the population. So we have exponential population growth and people who want to drive all over the world; with declining oil supplies. I won't even mention the US debt or diminishing water supplies. Let's stay on topic.

OK but we could just switch to electric cars and peace would spread through the world like facebook on a college campus. Well the problem is our entire economic system and the global economic systems are completely dependent on oil. From chemical fertilizers (our food) to plastics to tires to shoes to electricity to gas it is all dependent on oil. The truck drivers who are the back bone of the economy are complaining that they will need to raise our food and product prices because deisel is 4 dollars a gallon. What happens when gas is 10 dollars a gallon. We are facing a ripple effect unpresedented in human history. Every economy on earth is completely interconnected. Just ask Iceland about the little global recession we just had in 2008.

Ok enough statistics. True nobody knows the future and people also worried about Y2K you could say. We have had alarmists all throughout history and they have always been wrong. What about the most famous alarmist of them all. Noah! It may sound weird to want to prepare for a theoretical collpase or at minimum a rocky economic transition but history is very clear on this. Watch the documentary by Jared Diamond called Collapse and he will eloquently lay out the signs. I hope and pray post peak is a fantasy and nothing happens. After all the billions of people living in poverty in the Third World will probably be hit the hardest as food prices skyrocket. Just ask half of all Egyptians who were making $2 a day as global food prices soared. But if for some reason the signs are here whether faintly or glaringly we need to be prepared for post peak living. How will we do this, and how will we help others learn how to survive post peak living? More on that in Episode 2.

Great information on this subject:
Preparing for a Post Peak Life Video/Power Point--- Part 1 and Part 3

Documentary- COLLAPSE by Jared Diamond and National Geographic (highly recomended)

For a less "socially acceptable" documentary try Collapse by Michael Ruppert

1 comment:

  1. ah... I love what I've started here. great intro post. but what about the machines??